Is P2P lending a good investment in 2026? Returns, losses and the tests that decide it

Updated: 2 October 2026

Mintos published a net return of 9.3% for 2024 and -1.2% for 2022 (Mintos). Whether P2P lending is a good investment therefore turns on four tests: the loss rate, cash needs, tax and time horizon. This article sets platform data and studies beside deposits, bonds and equities, with arithmetic for different portfolio shares.

What P2P lending pays and what it costs on Mintos, Go & Grow and Estateguru

P2P lending pays contractual interest, and each platform publishes its figure on a different basis.

Mintos defines gross return as the annualised rate before fees or losses and net return as gross minus the annualised loss rate. Gross return stood at 12.0% in 2015 and 9.3% in 2024 (Mintos). However, costs sit outside that net series. Mintos charges 0.39% a year on Core Loans and legacy portfolios. On the Notes secondary market it charges 0.85% of the sale price (Mintos fees page, updated 1 October 2026). Against a 9.3% gross return, those 0.39 points take 4.2% of the income.

Go & Grow advertises up to 6% a year and charges €1 per withdrawal (Go & Grow, fees page of 22 April 2026). Bondora's transparency report of 13 July 2026 states that its forecast IRR has stayed above that target. Bondora's IRR counts expected defaults as losses and expected recoveries as gains (Bondora). In contrast, Estateguru reported a 9.96% weighted average interest rate on Baltic loans issued since 2023 (Estateguru, 22 July 2026). Interest paid by borrowers and a return received by investors are separate measurements, and the crowdlending returns guide sets out the labels.

Measured outcomes: platform series and studies of realised returns

Realised outcomes come from loan cash flows, and the four datasets below cover different platforms and periods.

Mintos net returns were 11.0% in 2019, 4.3% in 2020, 6.1% in 2021, -1.2% in 2022, 10.4% in 2023 and 9.3% in 2024. Behind them, the annual loss rate was 6.3% in 2020, 3.6% in 2021, 8.2% in 2022 and 0.0% in 2023 and 2024. The page credits 2020 to Covid-19 and 2022 to the war in Ukraine. It uses its latest recovery estimates and updates the page quarterly (Mintos, read 2 October 2026). Compounded, the six net figures give 46.4% in total, or 6.6% a year (own calculation).

Dömötör, Illés and Olvedi studied the full Bondora portfolio in the Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money (2023). Across 62,537 strictly closed loans the mean IRR was 27.72%, and 12.96% of those loans had a negative IRR. An extended sample of 105,135 loans adds loans classed as current but past original maturity or unpaid for a year. These loans are treated as producing no further cash flow. In the extended sample, the mean IRR is -4.17% with 41.63% negative (study).

By contrast, Chen, Lo and Tang analysed more than 750,000 loans issued in 2015 to 2018 on LendingClub, a US platform. They found a 75.6% probability of a positive return. Median returns were 4.7% to 10.3% for grades A to D. For grade E and below the median was -6.6% (International Review of Economics & Finance, January 2022).

Funding Circle reported on 26 April 2022 that its 90,000 retail investors had earned average annualised returns of 5% after fees and bad debt. They had on average received 80% of their investments back (Funding Circle).

P2P lending returns vs savings, bonds and equities: dated comparison

Each alternative below is a different measurement, and the table gives the basis next to every figure.

Among its sources the page names MSCI World and a Bloomberg Barclays high-yield index. It also names an iShares euro investment-grade corporate bond fund and a JPM euro money market fund and others. The 6.0% for Mintos loans uses 10.8% and 10.7% for 2023 and 2024, while the page's net-return table shows 10.4% and 9.3%. Compounding the net-return table gives 5.7% for 2020 to 2024.

Over the four calendar years 2021 to 2024, €10,000 would have become €12,649 at the Mintos net returns. At the gross returns of the SPDR Bloomberg Euro Aggregate Bond fund, the same sum would have become €8,852. MSCI World returns would have turned it into €14,927 (own calculation). Still, the bases differ. Mintos figures are estimated cash-flow returns, the bond fund reports euro gross returns and MSCI World is a dollar gross index. For 2022 Mintos reported -1.2% while the bond fund and MSCI World returned -17.17% and -17.73%. Mintos derives its series from loan cash flows and recovery estimates. But the fund and the index report calendar-year returns, so the 2022 gap compares two valuation methods.

Losses and platform failures in Europe with dates

Failures since 2019 ended in administration, bankruptcy, suspension, closure to retail investors and court-supervised reorganisation, and the risk guide covers the mechanisms behind each case.

• Lendy (UK) entered administration on 24 May 2019 with £160 million outstanding. At least £90 million of it was in default (Alternative Credit Investor, 28 May 2019). Their progress report to 23 May 2026 records a £50,412 distribution on one loan with a gross balance of £734,709 (report).
• Envestio and Kuetzal were declared bankrupt in Estonia in June 2020. About €33 million of lender funds were at Envestio (Alternative Credit Investor, 10 June 2020).
• E-Cash, a lending company, was suspended by Mintos in April 2021 after seven days of missed settlements. Active investments were held by 11,516 investors (Alternative Credit Investor, 26 April 2021). On 10 September 2021 Mintos staff wrote that the recovery rate had been raised to 35%. They added that amounts still shown as in recovery should be considered lost (Mintos community).
• Zopa announced that Zopa Bank would buy its P2P loan portfolio so that investors receive the full value of their invested balances (Zopa). Its retail P2P business then closed on 31 January 2022 (Alternative Credit Investor, 31 January 2022).
• Funding Circle announced on 26 April 2022 that its retail platform was closed, two years after new lending was paused in April 2020. It added that it would keep servicing existing loans until they are repaid or recovered (Funding Circle).
• Tudigo (France) entered a court-supervised reorganisation at the Bordeaux commercial court on 5 August 2026. A notice of 14 August states that amounts already invested are not directly affected (Tudigo).

Investor-profile arithmetic: portfolio share, loss size and break-even loss rate

A loss inside a P2P sleeve reaches the whole portfolio in proportion to the sleeve's share. Each cell in the table multiplies share by loss (own calculation, percentage points of the total portfolio).

Take €50,000 in total with €10,000 in P2P lending, 40% of the sleeve on one platform. If that platform loses 20%, the cost is €800, which is 8% of the sleeve and 1.6% of the total. Recovery runs on the net return. So a 25% sleeve loss needs 3.2 years at 9.3% a year (the 2024 net) to restore the starting value. At 4.3% (the 2020 net) it needs 6.8 years.

The break-even loss rate depends on the comparison rate. On Mintos's 2024 gross return of 9.3% less the 0.39% management fee, a loss rate of 6.78 points leaves 2.13%. That is the August 2026 euro deposit rate. A loss rate of 5.71 points leaves 3.2%, the euro-area inflation rate. A loss rate of 4.67 points leaves the 4.24% UK time-deposit rate. Mintos published an 8.2% loss rate for 2022, which exceeds all three thresholds.

Four conditions that decide whether published P2P returns match one investor's cash flows

The figures above describe averages, so four conditions decide whether a given investor's cash flows match them.

• Cash needs. Cash needed on a fixed date meets the exit rules first. PeerBerry allows resale only after 180 days, with discounts up to 50% and unsold listings expiring after 14 days (PeerBerry). Mintos tells investors to be prepared to hold until maturity. Investments from suspended or defaulted originators cannot trade on its secondary market (Mintos, updated 7 May 2026). An Estateguru loan of €750,000 issued in June 2021 was classed as defaulted at the end of 2022. It then returned principal in March 2025, 3.75 years after issue (Estateguru, 9 April 2026).
• Tax. GOV.UK states that peer-to-peer interest is taxable like any other interest. It adds that bad-debt relief works only against other P2P interest (GOV.UK, page dated 6 April 2016). Germany, for example, taxes capital income at 25% (Finanzamt NRW), which turns 9.3% into 6.98% and 2.13% into 1.60% before allowances. Dutch Box 3 applies 36% to a deemed 6.00% return on investments, including other receivables. That works out at 2.16% on the taxable investment base once the exempt amount of €59,357 per person is deducted. Where the actual return is lower, the tax authority adjusts the income (Belastingdienst). The taxation guide covers more countries.
• Currency. Mintos says a foreign-currency investment can depreciate against the investor's home currency (Mintos). At ECB reference rates, roubles worth €1,000 on 23 February 2022 (90.8791 per euro) were worth €787 on 28 February (115.4842). That is a fall of 21.3% (ECB).
• Time horizon. Go & Grow's help page of 24 April 2026 sets no mandatory holding period. It also calls the product a long-term solution, ideally 5+ years (Go & Grow help). Lendy's distribution above arrived seven years after administration began.

P2P lending as an investment: FAQ

Can you lose money in P2P lending?

Yes. Mintos's risk page states that managing risk does not exclude losing part or all of the invested funds (Mintos). Net return was negative at Mintos in 2022, and in the extended Bondora sample 41.63% of loans ended with a negative IRR.

Is P2P lending covered by a deposit guarantee?

No, the FCA states that loan-based crowdfunding investors do not have access to the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FCA). Mintos describes an investor compensation scheme that pays up to 90% of net loss to a maximum of €20,000. However, it excludes borrower default and lending company default (Mintos).

How does P2P lending compare with a savings account?

Over 2020 to 2024, Mintos's own comparison table shows 6.0% a year for Mintos loans and 0.8% for deposits. For 2022 the same table shows -1.2% for Mintos loans and -0.1% for deposits. So the higher average came with a year in which the loans returned less than deposits.

What loss rate makes P2P lending pay less than a savings account?

A loss rate of 6.78 percentage points, on a 9.3% gross return, a 0.39% fee and a 2.13% deposit rate. Every point lost from the gross return lowers the threshold by one point, so a 7.1% gross return, Mintos's 2022 figure, leaves 4.58 points.

How long can money stay tied up in P2P lending?

It runs from the loan term through any recovery period. PeerBerry allows a first resale after 180 days. Estateguru's €750,000 example took 3.75 years from issue to repayment of principal. Go & Grow sets no mandatory holding period. In rare situations Go & Grow pays a withdrawal in daily instalments. Its help page of 22 April 2026 says this feature has been activated once in the product's history (Go & Grow help).